Interview by Jaime Ortega.
Yana Korobko is the Vice-President of the Observatory of the Black, Gulf and Mediterranean Seas (OBGMS) in Paris and the Vice-President of the Institute of Peace and Development (INSPAD)
1) Many people speak about a new ‘world order’ and what this new establishment will mean for our modern civilization. Some propose we will have one currency for all, others one religious establishment and others one political system.
Even though the idea of such occurrences sounds interesting, from a geopolitical perspective it’s very unlikely to ever see China, Russia, Iran, Sudan Cuba, North Korea, Paraguay, Venezuela sharing ‘one system’ with the US. and other western allies. Lets not mention this unified paradigm from a religious perspective, which seems even more unlikely.
So is the “new world order’ concept more of a sci-fi conspiracy movie than actual reality considering the problems of interest above?
Each system, including that of international relations, goes through a period of birth, growth and decay. The last stage occurs not only because the system`s cycle has run out and it`s time to give a way to a new order. First of all, it happens because its organization doesn`t correspond any longer to the needs of the ambiance, which created it. And, secondly, because it cannot find an adequate response to modern historic challenges. The geopolitical map of the modern world is susceptible to experience colossal changes in the following decades, which are already occurring at accelerated pace under the weight of powerful global demands and numerous factors, like:
– financial crisis;
– predominance of consumer society;
– degradation of moral values;
– alarming ecological conditions;
– other political, religious and demographic reasons.
In all probability, the principal geopolitical metamorphosis will happen in the following directions. First of all, dis-unification of the Western powers (USA and EU) with the consequential decay of the Western civilization. Secondly, the strengthening of China as a new superpower thanks to its powerful economic, political and military potential. Thirdly, the renewal of the Russian imperialistic ambitions, which Moscow never left behind, nor did it hide them. It is only waiting for the right moment to declare about its leadership status. Fourthly, the rising influence of the Muslim states (the Gulf, especially) and the rapid widespread of Islam religion. Last but not the least, it`s most likely that some international organizations will cease to exist due to their functional ineffectiveness. So, if the above-mentioned tendencies prove themselves, we`re like to witness a new world order.
2) It seems like the ideal way to trigger World War 3, depends on the peace stability between Israel and the bordering Arab/North African countries. Is the Middle East the key for World War 3, or is there other ways to trigger such conflict?
Even though, the UN Charter prohibits its member states to use violence against each other, on the other hand, it permits the use of war for self-defense or the defense of allies, which leaves a legal loophole for the states to continue their foreign policy by “other means”. And in reality “other means” can spark off World War III with one imprudent step. For example, as a demonstration of new means of war, there can be named: psycho-information war (falsifying the country`s image), cyberwar (destabilizing the enemy`s computer system), war with usage of WMD (nuclear, biological, chemical and radiological). These types of war are either already taking place, or there`s an explicit threat of its outset in the Middle East, as well as in Iran, North Korea, in relations between India and Pakistan.
3) We know from intelligence that countries like Iran, Russia and China are trying to manufacture weapons “under the spying radar” that are not nuclear, but that propose a serious threat for modern warfare.
We also know from intelligence, that the U.S. and Israel have developed secret weapons that are catastrophic for modern day warfare in case a serious and sudden war erupts.
Could you confirm that all these countries have developed weapons ‘under the noses’ of each counter-spying intelligence agencies that we might not know yet exist?
It is difficult to say, if such weapons exist, as no official statement has been made so far. The same mystery was created on the eve of WWII around the unknown at that time weapons, like: psychotronic (manipulation of human behavior through visual and auditory senses); psychotropic (consumption of highly active psyche drugs for changing human`s personality), psychogenic (traumatic experience causing psychosomatic malfunction in the brain) and neurolinguistic (modifying the motivation of people by special influence technique).
4) Globalization really dates back to the 1.600 AC, close the beginnings of the U.S., but unlike the present it seems like before companies or businesses never had the actual financial power to overrule governments, at least not regularly.
With the modern emergence of globalization many transnational companies have become richer than many countries worldwide thanks to trade acts that allow growth and lack regulation.
Take BlackRock, Vanguard, JP-Morgan…and many more. Could it be said, that unlike the past now days these “corporations” or “financial institutions” have become just as effective as modern day governments in dictating the state of political and international affairs without government interruption?
Nowadays the whole world resembles a large inter-connected system, where the transnational corporations, like the ones you`ve just mentioned, have become the main driving force of economic progress whereas its traditional actors such as nation-states have been in many ways displaced by them.
Indeed, in the conditions of the modern globalization, the state has to sacrifice a certain degree of its sovereignty. And a government can do nothing about it, as globalization has become a main factor of the successful activity of a state. Of course, the modern TNCs have become more powerful than never before. However, one shouldn`t forget that in addition to the economic and social functions, a state carries out a mission that no TNC is able to perform on its own, which are: national defense, the protection of the citizens` rights, law and order maintainance etc. Certainly, the modern TNCs are effective, nevertheless, they cannot replace a state totally. Moreover, it can be concluded that globalization leads to the wide increase of the social and economic role of the nation-state through the mechanisms of its financial intermediation, as the strengthening of the functions of a state in response to the actively widespread globalization process is a real manifestation of globalization.
5) It is obvious that there is a fast decay on western values that sadly, will take a drastic effect in future political and financial venues. Lets face it, research has shown that the world IQ has dropped a few points and the IQ is closer to mental retardation.
Generation Millennial and Generation X for the most part, have a very limited and dangerous view about the world they very well live in. As a result is not surprising that even teenagers today don’t even know what “9/11” was! Unfortunately there is also an educated but small percentage of people, but it looks like we’re headed back to the “dark ages” and this time thanks to technology.
Is this present a serious threat for Western Civilization considering the staggering educational problem?
For the first time, the philosophers mentioned the conception of the crisis of the modern Western person in XIX century, as already then it was considered as a serious threat to the mere existence of the Western civilization. I can agree with the fact that today the core of the historical development of a civilization has become a dimension of a relationship between man and technology. It`s paradoxical, however, the more the level of technological capabilities of a civilization grows the more global challenges it faces. And not being capable to answer them properly can cause a risk of a deep spiritual crisis of the Western moral identity, which roots can be traced in a paradigm of its historic-cultural realities.
6) It seems clear the world is headed for another financial collapse, especially considering the Euro-zone condition and “China’s will” to stops using US dollars as a standard for trade.
Also the present political turmoil, looks like War World 3 is not far apart. In your opinion what wave will hit this generation first, a global financial collapse or global conflict? And how will it all end up?
It doesn`t really matter how it starts, since violence provokes only violence, which ends up in war. Unless appropriate measures are taken, the worst scenario can take place, which is a direct confrontation between the West and the Muslim world with nuclear powers on each side. Its firebrand can become the Israeli-Palestinian conflict with a disputable city Jerusalem in the center. The possible repercussions are clear: shifting global balance of power; the rise of new superpowers: Russia and China; the collapse of the Western civilization versus the increasing influence of the Asian culture (Chinese, Muslim etc.) In what it concerns elementary preventive measures, this can even be timely recurrence for the mediation services of the countries experienced in the inter-faith dialogue, like Tunisia, Turkey and the non-aligned powers, Egypt and Indonesia. From the West—Germany, Spain and France. However, as yet, no concrete peace policies have been carried out in this direction.
